Announcing Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2011

17th May 2011, University of Economics and Business - VNU has collaborated with Department for International Development (the UK) and Vietnam Center for Economic & Public Research (the UEB) to organize the launching conference of Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2011.

The conference has drawn many participants from governmental organizations, policy making agencies, international and domestic theory and research institutes and many others from banks, enterprises and corporations. More than 100 reporters from the news and press agencies have attended to conference.

 

Assoc.Prof.PhD. Nguyen Hong Son -UEB Rector opens the conference. 

Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2011 on the theme “The economy at a crossroad” appears in the complex situation of international economy, and mentions a series of major issues encountering Vietnam’s economy before the coming decade.

Speaking at the conference, Assoc.Prof.PhD. Nguyen Hong Son has affirmed that Vietnam Annual Economic Report has been one of priority researches of the University of Economics and Business - VNU. The university has set its goal to become a research oriented university; accordingly, its academic activities are based on research and vice versa, research guides the training and embeds socio-economic reality. Referring to the Vietnam Annual Economic Report, Assoc.Prof.PhD. Nguyen Hong Son confirmed that this is an objective and independent report. These analysis and assessments are based on actual statistics and modern research methods of economics. Hence, besides new findings, many other issues are solved in scientific methods and by scientific proofs.

 

Many scientists and governmental officers attend to the conference.

Among other important messages to policy makers, the Report particularly emphasized that “in 2011, the economy has more unfavorable situation as compared to 2008, although 2008 is the most serious period of the world economic crisis and domestic economic disadvantage”. The report showed that, to stabilize the economy, the government should give the priority for currency tightening policy patiently and decisively. Fiscal year policy also need to be tightened, based on the calculation of long-term growth possibility.

According to economists’ forecast, Vietnam’s public debt is likely temporarily slowed in 2011, but is gradually increasing to 64% of GDP in the coming years and 80% by 2020. This scenario requires the Government to bring down the overall budget deficit from 7.7% in 2009 to 4.3% in 2011; 3.1% in 2015 and 2.8% of GDP in 2020. Although the report claims of solvency and liquidity of Vietnam’s public debt remains safe threshold, the general existing situation is risky.


Presenting at the workshop, PhD. Nguyen Duc Thanh shared that Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2011 consists of 9 chapters and 2 appendices. Chapter 1 “The World Economy in 2010: An Uneven and Fragile Recovery” summarizes the changes of the global 2010 economy, provides an overview of the world economy with major events such as debt crisis in Europe, the currency war issues which are analyzed by a system of statistical data and basic idea of  world economic trends.
The overview of the world economy under the theme “Vietnam’s economy in 2010” provides a panoramic view and assessment of Vietnam’s economy over the past year, the main trends in economic macro-economic aspect, economic structure, government budget, balance of payments and macro-economic policy, etc.
Chapter 3, “Macroeconomic Risks in the New Context of Vietnam” proposes a model reflecting the potential risks of Vietnam’s macroeconomic in the coming period, with the crucial issues of current economic growth, which contain the risks for financial systems and property market, and cause the macroeconomic imbalances. Chapter 4, “Lessons from a Decade of Fighting Inflation in Vietnam” focuses on studying the causes of inflation in Vietnam in the period 2000-2010, based on quantitative approaches to find the new evidence, accordingly to propose important recommendations on policies to fight inflation in the future.

Chapter 5 entitled “Toward a Foundation for the Interest Rate Policy of Vietnam” analyzes the interest rate policy in Vietnam recent years, proving that Vietnam is lacking a consistent mechanism for operating interest rates. Based on the analysis of the economic issues behind the unusual interest in Vietnam for many years, the authors propose a policy platform for a more consistent and effective interest rate.

Chapter 6 studies “Public Debt of Vietnam: Risks and Challenges”, which provides clear picture of existing situation of public debt as well as thorough analysis on risks around this issue. The chapter also points out a forecast of public debt in the coming decade.

Chapter 7 under the theme “An Analysis of the Structure of Trade Deficit between Vietnam and China” systematically analyzes the serious structural imbalance of trade between Vietnam and China, on that base to point out the dominant cause of this phenomenon, and discusses the necessary reaction policy.

Chapter 8, “Vietnam Labor Market: An Informal Sector Perspective” offers a detailed discussion about the system and the labor market, focusing on a broad non-official sector in Vietnam. The authors believe this is one of the most important sectors in the labor market in Vietnam, which has been skipped for a long time in terms of policy.

To conclude, Chapter 9 discusses on “2011 Economic Prospects and Policy Implications” and generally evaluate the economy in 2010 as well as the effectiveness of economic policy implemented in the year. Chapter 9 also forecasts financial economic situation ò Vietnam in 2011.


Many participants have shared their idea at the conference.

Having remarks at the conference, participants highly appreciated the quality and information of the report. Assoc.Prof.PhD.Sc. Vo Dai Luoc shared that the data base and research fundamental are accurate and reliable. The report has showed the model of Vietnam’s economic growth; however the question is whether it is consistent with the actual situation. The report also clarified the issues to be solved such as human resource, high technology which still needs further analysis on the current growth model.


PhD. Nguyen Duc Thanh, Chief author of Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2011 in front of the Press interview.

At the same point of view with Assoc.Prof. Vo Dai Luoc, the representative from the Embassy of Singapore believed that many issues given in the report are recognized and affirmed to be true. However, what we need is the specific and effective solution. In the appreciation of participants’ suggestions, PhD. Nguyen Duc Thanh, Chief author of the report affirmed that the shortcomings will be added in the report in the coming year, especially on the issues such as policy enforcement and their problems.


UEB leaders and delegates at the conference.

Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2011 contains 9 chapters and 2 appendices, which are updated until December 2010, some events are updated until March 2011.

Full Report in Vietnamese consists 500 pages, which is planned to publish by June 2011.

The Report in English is being published after one month internationally.

Vietnam Annual Economic Report is helpful reference for managers, policymakers, researchers as well as readers interesting in macroeconomics issues in Vietnam.


Manh Tuan - Luu Mai Photos: Cao Tuan, Thuy Diep, Cao Nhat

FullName Email
Address Security code XLUDJV
Content

 Video
Get the Flash Player to see this player.